2017 Thanksgiving Holiday Air Travel Forecast

Crowded airports and flight delays are inevitably part of anyone’s holiday travel experience. At no time is the risk of a delayed flight higher than over the Thanksgiving break. You can reduce your chances of being stuck at the airport, or on the tarmac, both by looking at the past performance of various carriers and airports, and knowing which travel days are most prone to delays.

RewardExpert analyzed Department of Transportation data published by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics over the past five years to give travelers a better idea of where and when the most delays have been reported, and which airlines are most likely to get you to your destination on-time. We rated the on-time performance of the top domestic airlines at the 45 busiest airports in the US around Thanksgiving, and determined the best and worst days to travel during the five days before and after the holiday.

The Best and Worst Days to Travel

If you can leave early and stay for a while, you are least likely to encounter delays on the Saturday before the holiday. Don’t even think about Sunday, though: you’ll run into the highest rate of flight delays before the holiday if you do travel that day.

Waiting until the last minute pays off: our analysis of the data shows the lowest rates of delayed flights on Thanksgiving day.

The Tuesday before Thanksgiving is the second-worst day to fly. Surprisingly, our data shows that you are more likely to arrive on time if you wait until Wednesday. Over the past five years, an average of 84.9% of all flights on Thanksgiving Eve have been on-time.

When heading back home. it’s a good idea to skip town early on Black Friday. You’ll have the best chance of avoiding delays. Otherwise, if you don’t catch a flight on Saturday, you can expect heavy delays starting with Sunday, which will get worse before they get better.

Last year, the Monday after Thanksgiving was the worst day to fly back. This year, Tuesday is likely to be just as bad, if not worse. Flip a coin.

Airline Rankings

Hawaiian Airlines continues to have the best on-time performance record, despite a 3.8% rise in delays last Thanksgiving, with 90.9% of flights departing or arriving on-time. With an average on-time rate of 93.9%, Hawaiian Airlines stands out at the top of the pack.

Two of the three major airlines reported slight increases in delayed flights during Thanksgiving 2016, with only American Airlines reporting improvements in timely arrivals and departures. Delta still outperforms both United and American by about 5%, with 88.3% of flights on-time, compared to 82.9% for United and 82.8% for American.

Budget carriers Southwest and Frontier showed the most improvement last year, reducing delays by 1.9% and 0.85% respectively. JetBlue reported the greatest increase in delayed departures and arrivals, which increased by 5.7%. While Southwest reported on-time performance last year just behind United, at 81.4%, its average on-time rate of 80.54% still lags. The bottom line is that you may have better luck getting to your destination on time flying with a budget carrier this year, but don’t count on it.

#	Carrier	Average % On-Time	2016 Increase/Decrease	2016 % On-Time
1	Hawaiian	93.94	-3.82	90.88
2	Delta	88.30	-2.48	86.32
3	Alaska	85.88	-2.09	84.21
4	United	82.98	-1.58	81.72
5	American	82.96	0.81	83.41
6	JetBlue	81.17	-5.64	76.66
7	Skywest	80.54	0.18	80.68
8	Southwest	79.79	1.96	81.36
9	Frontier	78.87	0.85	79.55

Best and Worst Airports for On-Time Performance

If you’re travelling to or from Hawaii, you’re in luck: Honolulu International Airport continues to have the best on-time performance record. Over the past five years, 91.5% of all flights were on time.

Good news for Chicagoland travelers: on-time performance improved at both O’Hare and Midway over Thanksgiving 2016, with 81.3% and 83.7% of flights arriving or departing without delays (five-year averages of 79.9% and 80.4%).

Bad news for New Jersey and NYC-metro area travelers: delays increased sharply at Newark’s Liberty International Airport last year, affecting more than one quarter of all flights last Thanksgiving. Newark now takes second place for worst on-time performance record behind delay-plagued San Francisco International Airport.

#	Airport	Total Flights	Delayed flights	% On-time
1	Honolulu ^HNL	1,356	133	91.48
2	Hartsfield-Jackson^ATL	1,383	218	86.85
3	Douglas ^CLT	3,233	423	86.58
4	Southwest Florida ^RSW	990	112	86.08
5	Salt Lake City ^SLC	2,978	551	85.42

#	Airport	Total Flights	Delayed flights	% On-time
41	Sacramento ^SMF	1,264	292	79.70
42	William P. Hobby ^HOU	1,655	313	79.58
43	Oakland ^OAK	1,484	346	78.78
44	Newark Liberty ^EWR	3,440	920	78.73
45	San Francisco ^SFO	4,920	1193	75.47

Full On-time Performance Ranking of the 45 Busiest Airports

#	Airport & IATA Code	City & State	Total Flights	Delayed flights	% On-Time 2016	% On-Time Average	Best Day	Worst Day
1	Honolulu ^HNL	Honolulu, HI	1,356	133	90.19	91.48	23	26
2	Hartsfield-Jackson ^ATL	Atlanta, GA	1,383	218	84.24	86.85	23	27
3	Douglas ^CLT	Charlotte, NC	3,233	423	86.92	86.58	24	28
4	Southwest Florida ^RSW	Fort Myers, FL	990	112	88.69	86.06	24	19
5	Salt Lake City ^SLC	Salt Lake City, UT	2,978	551	81.50	85.42	24	27
6	Ronald Reagan ^DCA	Arlington, VA	2,065	344	83.34	85.23	24	28
7	Sky Harbor ^PHX	Phoenix, AZ	4,598	792	82.78	85.04	24	26
8	Tampa ^TPA	Tampa, FL	2,096	276	86.83	84.97	24	28
9	Louis Armstrong ^MSY	New Orleans, LA	1,323	212	83.98	84.80	23	27
10	Portland ^PDX	Portland, OR	1,737	245	85.90	84.54	24	26
11	George Bush ^IAH	Houston, TX	3,877	619	84.03	84.41	24	22
12	Pittsburgh ^PIT	Pittsburgh, PA	769	107	86.09	84.34	24	19
13	Orlando ^MCO	Orlando, FL	3,792	599	84.20	84.20	23	28
14	Miami ^MIA	Miami, FL	2,004	380	81.04	84.05	23	26
15	Raleigh-Durham ^RDU	Raleigh, NC	1,072	187	82.56	84.03	24	28
16	Austin-Bergstrom ^AUS	Austin, TX	10,878	1,362	87.48	83.98	23	28
17	Wayne County ^DTW	Detriot, MI	3,564	643	81.96	83.75	24	26
18	Logan ^BOS	Boston, MA	3,399	626	81.58	83.68	24	28
19	Dulles ^IAD	Dulles, VA	1,010	159	84.26	83.65	24	19
20	Seattle-Tacoma ^SEA	Seattle, WA	3,676	619	83.16	83.59	23	27
21	Minneapolis/ St. Paul ^MSP	St. Paul, MN	3,491	804	76.97	83.55	23	21
22	Fort Lauderdale ^FLL	Fort Lauderdale, FL	2,651	501	81.10	83.26	23	19
23	San Antonio ^SAT	San Antonio, TX	942	141	85.03	83.25	23	27
24	John Wayne ^SNA	Santa Ana, CA	1,210	224	81.49	83.02	23	27
25	Philadelphia ^PHI	Philadelphia, PA	2,086	336	83.89	82.94	24	19
26	Nashville ^BNA	Nashville, TN	1,561	288	81.55	82.79	23	26
27	Thurgood-Marshall ^BWI	BaltimoreMD	2,989	466	84.41	82.64	24	18
28	Kansas City ^MCI	Kansas City, MO	1,287	179	86.09	82.58	23	27
29	Denver ^DEN	Denver, CO	6,323	956	84.88	82.26	24	21
30	McCarren ^LAS	Las Vegas, NV	4,286	826	80.73	82.23	23	26
31	Lambert - St. Louis ^STL	Saint Louis, MO	1,684	289	82.84	81.77	24	27
32	Fort Worth ^DFW	Forth Worth, TX	5,326	1,104	79.27	81.45	23	27
33	San Diego ^SAN	San Diego, CA	2,277	425	81.34	81.15	23	26
34	Los Angeles ^LAX	Los Angeles, CA	6,081	1,557	74.40	81.12	23	26
35	Mineta San Jose ^SJC	San Jose, CA	1,310	289	77.94	80.47	23	26
36	LaGuardia ^LGA	New York, NY	2,566	726	71.71	80.42	23	21
37	Midway ^MDW	Chicago, IL	2,543	415	83.86	80.42	23	27
38	John F Kennedy ^JFK	New York, NY	2,801	534	80.94	80.27	23	28
39	O'Hare ^ORD	Chicago, IL	6,825	1,277	81.29	79.94	24	27
40	Love Field ^DAL	Dallas, TX	2,065	462	77.63	79.85	23	27
41	Sacramento ^SMF	Sacramento, CA	1,264	292	76.90	79.70	24	26
42	William P. Hobby ^HOU	Houston, TX	1,655	313	81.09	79.58	23	27
43	Oakland ^OAK	Oakland, CA	1,484	346	76.68	78.78	23	26
44	Newark Liberty ^EWR	Newark, NJ	3,440	920	73.26	78.73	24	20
45	San Francisco ^SFO	San Francisco, CA	4,920	1,193	75.75	75.47	23	25

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Methodology

RewardExpert analyzed the Bureau of Transportation Statistics monthly airline on-time performance data for the five-year period from 2011-2016, and examined the performance of nine airlines at 45 airports during the 11 day period around Thanksgiving (the five days before and after Thanksgiving). We calculated the average percentage of flights that departed and arrived on-time for each airline, airport, and day, each year. Our forecast reflects a rolling five-year average of on-time performance. On-time performance for each day was then ranked for five days before and five days after Thanksgiving to obtain the best and worst days for on-time flights. Airlines and airports likewise received ranks based on their average on-time record over the last five years during the Thanksgiving travel period.