2017 Labor Day Air Travel Forecast
RewardExpert looks at the best and worst days to travel and the airports and airlines to avoid
Flight delays, cancellations, and various disruptions are inevitable while traveling. However, for those flying for Labor Day this year, let’s take a look at the track record of some destinations, airports, and carriers to help you prep for every eventually.
RewardExpert analyzed Department of Transportation flight data from the past five years to give travelers an idea of where the most delays have been reported and which airlines were responsible. This report examines the on-time performance of the top 10 domestic airlines at the 45 busiest airports in the U.S. over the Labor Day travel period. We also looked at the best and worst days to travel during the eight days surrounding the holiday.
Best and Worst Days to Travel During the Labor Day Travel Period
RewardExpert examined DOT flight data during the 8 days surrounding Labor Day, plus the holiday itself, from the years 2011-2015 (latest available data) to assess which days during the travel period have the best on-time performance.
To start your Labor Day weekend without any hiccups, flying out on the Wednesday before the holiday itself is your best bet. There are far fewer delays, cancellations, or disruptions on this day rather than the days after it. For those who cannot take off work, the day directly before Labor Day is also a fantastic day for travel.
According to our findings, there are, on average, 28% fewer flights during the weekend of Labor Day than the days before it and after it, so you might just be traveling without lines if you’re smart.
This year Sunday the 3rd is a good day to fly, if you don’t mind a short trip. For those who want a little more time celebrating, Friday isn’t a bad travel day either. However, if you wait any longer, expect delays.
Avoid traveling on the Tuesday and Wednesday after the holiday. These days, historically, have the most delays and cancellations. Travelers will try to return home to get an extra day before returning to work, but it’s best to leave on Labor Day itself to avoid getting stuck at the gate.
On-Time Performance Ranking of the 10 Major U.S. Airlines
RewardExpert examined DOT data to determine the on-time performance of major U.S. airlines. This list displays the percentage of flights that were on time by airline during the Labor Day travel period.
Unsurprisingly, pleasant weather favors Hawaiian Airlines. The airline was the best for on-time performance during the previous holidays. Its flights were on-time 94.3% of the time.
Of the three major carriers, Delta leads the pack, with 88.4% of flights on-time during the Labor Day travel period. American Airlines ranks right in the middle with 84.9% of flights being on-time. However, United comes in third of the major airlines. 83.3% of flights are delayed or cancelled.
Budget carrier JetBlue and regional carrier Skywest are two airlines you should think twice about before booking. They both have less than 83% flights on-time.
Airline ranking by on-time performance
| 1 | Hawaiian Airlines | 94.3% |
| 2 | Alaska Airlines | 91.7% |
| 3 | Virgin America | 89.4% |
| 4 | Delta Air lines | 88.4% |
| 5 | Frontier Airlines | 86.6% |
| 6 | Southwest Airlines | 86.2% |
| 7 | American Airlines | 84.9% |
| 8 | United Airlines | 83.3% |
| 9 | SkyWest Airlines | 82.0% |
| 10 | JetBlue Airways | 81.4% |
The Busiest Airports Over the Labor Day Travel Period
RewardExpert examined DOT data to determine the busiest airports over the Labor Day travel period. This list displays the yearly average number of arrival and departure flights during the travel period by domestic airports.
Hartsfield-Jackson is the busiest airport in the country over the holiday travel period. An average of 8,194 departures and arrivals go through the Atlanta airport during the holiday period per year. Despite the crowds, travelers will likely have a positive experience flying through Atlanta due to their solid on-time performance ranking during the Labor Day travel period.
Travelers visiting Chicago might want to consider Midway as their transit point instead of O’Hare. O’Hare is the second busiest airport during the travel period and the 11th most prone to delays or cancellations.
Third on our list of the busiest airports over Labor Day is Dallas/Fort Worth Airport. Dallas/Fort Worth also scored well in terms of on-time performance, which makes it a great option for Texans flying out as long as they don’t mind the crowds. Dallas is busier than George Bush Airport in Houston, but Houston is more prone to delays according to our findings.
Dallas travellers might also notice that their other neighborhood airport is getting busier. In the last five years, Love Field airport has increased the number of flights at an annualized rate of 12.5% - that’s higher than all the airports we examined by a margin of 7.2% more than the second place airport: Seattle-Tacoma Airport, clocking in at 5.3%.
Top 10 Busiest Airports
| # | Airport & IATA Code | City & State | Average No. of Flights |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hartsfield-Jackson ATL | Atlanta, GA | 8194 |
| 2 | O'Hare ORD | Chicago, IL | 6629 |
| 3 | Dallas/Fort Worth DFW | Dallas, TX | 5728 |
| 4 | Denver DEN | Denver, CO | 4913 |
| 5 | Los Angeles LAX | Los Angeles, CA | 4691 |
| 6 | San Francisco SFO | San Francisco, CA | 3572 |
| 7 | George Bush IAH | Houston, TX | 3567 |
| 8 | Sky Harbor PHX | Phoenix, AZ | 3503 |
| 9 | McCarran LAS | Las Vegas, NV | 3023 |
| 10 | Douglas CLT | Charlotte, NC | 2685 |
These percentages represent the average change in the number of flights per year. The first table represents the five airports with the greatest growth and the second table represents the five airports with the greatest decline.
| Airport & IATA code | City & State | Annualized Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Love Field DAL | Dallas, TX | +12,5% |
| Seattle-Tacoma SEA | Seattle, WA | + 5.3% |
| Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood FLL | Fort Lauderdale, FL | + 4.9% |
| Detroit DTW | Detroit, MI | + 4.9% |
| Ronald Reagan DCA | Washington, D.C. | + 4.0% |
| Airport & IATA code | City & State | Annualized Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dulles IAD | Washington, D.C. | - 15.9% |
| Raleigh-Durham RDU | Raleigh, NC | - 6.1% |
| Pittsburgh PIT | Pittsburgh, PA | - 5.8% |
| San Antonio SAT | San Antonio, TX | - 4.7% |
| Sky Harbor PHX | Phoenix, AZ | - 4.7% |
Best and Worst Airports for On-Time Performance
RewardExpert examined DOT data to determine the on-time performance by airport. This list displays the percentage of flights that were on time by airport during the travel period.
Who wouldn’t love Labor Day in Hawaii this year? If the islands are on your radar for the holiday, you’re in luck. Hawaii tops both lists; 90.9% of flights leaving Honolulu Airport are on-time in addition to being home to the top-performing airline.
Salt Lake City has the second best record for timely holiday flights. Those who live in the west can trust SLC to be an efficient hub to travel across the country.
Get ready if you’re traveling through the greater New York area because JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark all scored in the bottom ten. Newark, in particular, has the potential to be a nightmare this Labor Day. It has the worst on-time performance record of the 45 airports we examined with only about three out of four flights arriving or departing on time.
San Francisco International Airport scored third worst overall as only 78.2% of flights were on-time. According to our findings, San Francisco airport is also experiencing a slight increase in the number of flights they have each year. In 2011 the airport had 3,295 flights during the Labor Day period. In 2015, this number grew to 3,475, which is a growth of 1.3% per year on average.
Best Airports for On-Time Performance
| 1 | Daniel K. Inouye HNL | Honolulu, HI | 90.9% |
| 2 | Salt Lake City SLC | Salt Lake, UT | 90.7% |
| 3 | Minneapolis–Saint Paul MSP | Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN | 89.5% |
| 4 | Sky Harbor PHX | Phoenix, AZ | 88.5% |
| 5 | Douglas CLT | Charlotte, NC | 87.9% |
Worst Airports for On-Time Performance
| 45 | Liberty EWR | Newark, NJ | 76.6% |
| 44 | LaGuardia LGA | New York, NY | 76.7% |
| 43 | San Francisco SFO | San Francisco, CA | 78.2% |
| 42 | Louis Armstrong MSW | New Orleans, LA | 80.5% |
| 41 | Logan BOS | Boston, MA | 81.2% |
Methodology
Source: Data was collected from the Department of Transportation’s (DOT) Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
On-Time Evaluation: A flight is considered on time if it takes off or lands within 15 minutes after the scheduled time shown in the carriers' reservations system. The data assesses both arrivals and departures taking into account gate-to-takeoff times and landing-to-gate times.
Data Range: RewardExpert analyzed data from the 8 days surrounding Labor Day in the years 2011-2015